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President Volodymyr Zelenskyy of Ukraine stated that proposals for a peace deal developed with American diplomats are poised to be finalised in a matter of days. Afterward, American envoys are expected to present the documentation to the Russian leadership.

Berlin Talks Yield Major Headway, But Key Hurdles Remain

Following extensive talks in Berlin, American negotiators indicated on Monday that approximately “90%” of the disputed points between Moscow and Kyiv had been settled. Although the outlook appears positive, the path to ending the conflict remains uncertain, especially given Russia's absence from the current dialogue.

In the early hours of Tuesday, Zelenskyy noted that the American legislature was anticipated to vote on defense assurances and that a complete package of documents might be ready “imminently.” He added that, the United States would engage in discussions with Russian representatives, potentially followed by summit-level talks possibly this weekend.

Defense Assurances and Allied Backing

“The plan involves five key agreements. Several pertain to security guarantees: legally binding, that is, approved and endorsed by the US Congress,” the president remarked to the press. He stated that these guarantees would “mirror the collective defense clause” of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization.

On Monday, American representatives declined to give specific details regarding the likely contents of the security package or what would happen if Russia attempted to seize additional territory following an agreement. They did, however, confirm that the United States does not intend to deploy troops on the ground in the country.

Leaders from the United Kingdom, France, and Germany and several additional European nations issued a joint statement that troops from a “allied coalition” could “assist in the rebuilding of Ukrainian military capabilities, in securing Ukrainian airspace, and in supporting safer seas, including through conducting operations within Ukraine.”

They stopped short, however, of suggesting these measures would serve as guarantees equivalent to Nato’s article 5. In any case, there is little sign that Moscow is anywhere close to agreeing to the type of package being negotiated between the U.S. and Ukraine.

Kremlin Response and Territorial Dispute

The following day, the Russian government stated it had not received the specifics of the proposals on security guarantees. Russia’s deputy foreign minister, Sergei Ryabkov, asserted that Russia would never accept troops from NATO member states operating in Ukrainian territory “no matter what.”

The main sticking point between the Ukrainian team and US negotiators remains the issue of land. One proposal involves Kyiv ceding the areas of the Donbas it currently controls, while the Ukrainian side prefers to maintain the current front lines. “We are discussing the territorial issue. You know, it is one of the key issues. At this point, there is no consensus on it yet,” the president said following the Berlin discussions.

The US negotiation team, led by two senior advisors, has proposed a compromise solution. Under this plan would see Ukraine pull back, but Russia would not advance, with the demilitarised area established as “an open economic area.” Russia has indicated it could use internal security units rather than the military in such an area, implying it would still expect to control the territory.

“I want to stress once again: a ‘special economic zone’ is not under the control of Moscow. Neither de jure nor de facto do we accept the Donbas region – its temporarily occupied part – as belonging to Russia. Categorically,” said Zelenskyy.

Path Forward and Possible Scenarios

It is not clear how the two sides will resolve the territorial issue. Zelenskyy has previously suggested that a negotiated arrangement such as a special economic area could be theoretically possible if the Ukrainian people approved it in a national vote. The critical stumbling block is likely to be when the plans are presented to Russian president Vladimir Putin, who has shown no indication he is willing to compromise on his war aims.

“If Putin rejects everything, we will face exactly what we are experiencing on our flight right now – instability,” said the president, recording the comments as his aircraft departed from Berlin.

“I am confident the United States will increase sanction pressure and provide us with more weapons if he rejects everything. I think, that would be a fair request from Ukraine to the Americans,” he concluded.