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Ordinarily, the National Football League's Head Coach of the Year trophy adheres to a straightforward pattern. It often acts as a kind of apology. We regret we got wrong your squad in our pre-campaign projections.

Theoretically, it's a direct line: the skipper who engineered the biggest turnaround is handed the prize. In practice, it fuels an yearly argument about preseason outlooks and whether we're actually honoring superior leadership or merely the greatest upset.

But this year's race is profoundly unique. The list of candidates is remarkably deep. It has been the season of comebacks. The league has been chaotic, with reigning division champions falling away and longtime also-rans rising in unison. In an typical season, Sean Payton guiding the his team to the summit of the AFC would make him the stone-cold favorite. But in this chaotic and entertaining season, he's competing with five other exceptional candidates.

This is how the ideal vote ought to look.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, His Team, Their Record

Coach of the Year selectors adore signal-callers. History shows this. Sean McVay in 2017. Another in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. When you fix a quarterback, you're halfway to winning the award.

Ben Johnson hasn't just fixed his young quarterback; he's unlocked him. Given a proper system, the QB has been given the opportunity to demonstrate his otherworldly talent. From Week 9, the Bears sit at fourth in offensive Expected Points Added per play. This isn't a lucky run – it's consistent dominance. Under Johnson, the quarterback has become more decisive, far less careless, and has eagerly surrendered to the scheme instead of improvising. It is an offense designed entirely in Johnson's vision: a bully-ball run game, a heavy helping of play-action passes and a imaginative aerial game that creates wide-open receivers consistently. The QB has capitalized. And when openings weren't there, he's been capable to spin big plays from nothing.

Johnson arrived to Chicago with a specific offensive vision. Virtually every decision – rebuilding the trenches, highlighting the tight ends, turning Williams into a rhythm passer – has paid off. This is rare for a first-year head coach. And it's rarer yet for a coach who walked into the building with the level of expectations Johnson did. For two straight offseasons, he was the hottest candidate on the head coaching market. However when it comes to hiring a leader, there are no sure things. Remarkably, he has lived up to expectations – and even surpassed them. He's demonstrated not just to be a offensive wizard but the kind of leader that can inject new life into an franchise.

During a typical year, he would be the overwhelming choice. But this is not a normal campaign!

Where his candidacy runs a bit unstuck is on defense. The Bears currently rank in the bottom third in defensive efficiency. They are living on takeaways, and turnovers are notoriously inconsistent. Defensive minds can emphasise ball disruption, but no one can guarantee it. Johnson is on the list because the offense is real. He's not higher because luck is doing an outsized share of the defense's heavy lifting. With a couple breaks of the ball, the Bears would be two wins behind. It's been an remarkable turnaround, and the core is in place for long-term success. But he comes up just short here.

4) Liam Coen, Jacksonville Jaguars, Their Record

Coen is in a comparable position to Johnson. He's a fellow rookie head coach who has masterminded a dramatic turnaround. During the stretch run of the season, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the finest all-around ball of his career. And he's also overseen the transformation of a defensive unit that now sits at fifth in the league in EPA per play.

What's more notably, Coen has nailed the off-field aspects, which was not a certainty after his early public appearances and some of his offseason moves.

The coach took over the Jaguars with an exceptionally raw staff. Unlike Johnson, who packed themselves with the ideal staff mix of youth and veteran savvy, Coen hired newbies. From the head coach on down to assistants to position coaches, the Jaguars are filled with rookies. That type of setup is exciting in theory, but often collapses in reality – with other teams are a cautionary tale – because everyone is learning a their job on the fly. Yet Coen has managed to bring everyone and all elements together.

After an early strong beginning, there was a chance that the season would veer off the rails. A midseason setback had the team wobbling again. That's usually when coaches overcorrect. Coen didn't. Rather, he streamlined the approach. Jacksonville stopped chasing explosive answers and started hunting sustainable ones. Coen recentered the offense around his playmakers and the ground attack, and asked Lawrence to use his legs more often.

The results are clear. The Jags have won seven games consecutively and will be the conference's number three playoff seed. Coen gets the slightest knock in the standings because he inherited a talented roster, but he has demonstrated he can get the most out of that roster.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, His Team, 13-3

Each Strong of the Year argument has a pivotal moment. For Mike Macdonald, it was his QB choice.

Parting ways from a incumbent, signing a different signal-caller and partnering him with an new play-caller could have derailed the campaign in the early weeks. Instead, it shaped it. By the mid point of the season, the new QB was an MVP contender. He has fallen away after that hot streak, dropping to 23rd in EPA per dropback over the latter part of the season, placing him only one place ahead of other QBs.

Still